阿笔谈股系列21-浅谈SCGM-Input Cost 是否能转嫁给顾客

This article first appeared in Investips.my Blog & Facebook, on July 7, 2018.

之前阿笔曾分享过如何了解Input cost 来对上市公司做工课 (Muda Holding) 。 http://investips.my/?q=content/%E9%98%BF%E7%AC%94%E8%B0%88%E8%82%A1%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%9719-%E6%B5%85%E8%B0%88muda-%E6%8A%8A%E5%9E%83%E5%9C%BE%E5%8F%98%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91

SCGM是一家生产thermo-vacuum form plastic 的公司。该公司产品主要用于包装食品和电子产品。 近期该公司股价从RM3.00下跌到RM1.32左右,因所公布季报,盈利不理想。在最新季报(Q42018)里有提到盈利下滑的原因:

  1. Higher resin prices (input cost)
  2. Higher finance cost
  3. Higher depreciation charges
  4. Higher labour cost
  5. Foreign exchange loss

 

SCGM的新厂刚建成所以depreciation会有所提高,又因借钱建厂所以finance cost也有所增加。综观以上因素,阿笔认为higher resin prices (input cost)才是主因。

 该公司产品制造必需使用到plastic resin,而plastic resin价格会跟随国际油价有关。近期,油价突破USD $60,大大提升plastic resin价钱导致SCGM生产成本提高许多。

 那么是否SCGM能转嫁生产成本?

Plastic resin价格提高导致所有thermo-vacuum form plastic生产商面对成本问题而不是只有SCGM的问题。再次,SCGM包装盒只占其食品客顾生产成本不大。

例如,一位经营经济饭的小贩(假设net profin margin 20%因Old Town都大约12-15%。一个lunch box成本大约RM0.20。一碟经济饭假如卖RM8。Lunch box如上涨Rm0.05(0.05/0.2x100%=25%)对其整体盈利Rm1.60影响不大(0.05/1.60x100%=3%)。

Annual report 2017, page 19.

IPO document, page 21

IPO document, page 234

所以,阿笔认为SCGM有能力把部分成本转嫁给顾客。

如果,SCGM可以成功把成本转嫁给顾客,未来盈利率应会有所提升。

 

风险

新厂执行风险

环保意识减弱

 

催化剂:

  1. New kulai factory (sengkang) 巳经完成。预计Dec 2018开始投入运营。(生产量将从36M Kg/year提升到62.6M Kg/year)这新厂预计花费大约RM125M(差不多是一半目前SCGM市值)
  2.  新厂新机器,有助于降低成本,提高生产效率。
  3. 环保意识提升,一些州属禁止使用polystyrene为食物包装,预计这会提升该公司产品需求。

 

SCGM, RM1.31/share, 市值RM253M, p/e: 15, ROE 9.7% , NTA: RM0.868/share Dividend yield: 4.58%

 

注:阿笔个人持有该公司股份,但并非该公司董事,顾问或员工。以上投资分析,纯属阿笔个人意见和观点。任何人因看此文章而造成任何投资损失,阿笔恕不负责。

免责声明:以上言论纯属读者分享,并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,怒本网站不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢

 

Bad news for SCGM

'Moving forward, SCGM expects to record flattish yoy results in FY19. This is due to the impact of the transition from its old plants to its new plant. Despite an expected increase in sales as the group ramps up new capacity from its new plant, SCGM said that higher depreciation charges and an increase in interest expenses would weigh on its earnings. However, SCGM said it expects earnings to grow significantly from FY20 onwards, as the group hits optimum utilisation rates for the new plant. Also, net margin is expected to hover at around 5-9% in FY19 before improving to 8-10% in FY20, according to management'.

CIMB Sector Note on July 6, 2018.